Our Matchup Breakdowns page is designed to provide the NFL handicapper who prefers to make his own selections with a one stop-shop choc-full of invaluable data.
I’ll attempt to clarify the graph pictured below going from left to right:
The first column groups together the teams who are matching up in a given week.
Column 2 provides the line. We put this graphic out on Thursday, so we try to average out the lines from various sources at this point in the week.
Next we have our fully custom R/W/SP/LP stats. A further explanation of these stats can be found in our Team Evaluations Guide. They are also defined in the key on the right-hand side of the graph. These stats are all conditionally formatted so that the deeper blue blocks reflect negative statistics and deeper red blocks reflect the most positive. This information can also be found in the key.
Working from left to right, the next set of data provides weighted rankings of all three phases of each team (offense, defense, and special teams). This information is courtesy of footballoutsiders.com. It is important to note that these stats do not play a major role in my handicapping approach. What they do provide, however, is critical insight into game flow and potential mismatches for certain phases or even specific players. I envision these stats being most helpful to daily fantasy players, but still to be used as a handy handicapping tool. The values within these columns represent the league ranking of each team within that particular category. The categories are defined in the key on the right hand side. I’ve designed this data set aiming to highlight the most glaring phase mismatches across all games in a given week. It’s also been conditionally formatted to highlight the team with the advantage in lime green, and the team with the disadvantage in bright orange. For example, the glaring mismatches in the Thursday night game were the Pats rushing defense over the Colts rushing offense, and the Colts special teams over the Pats special teams. Other mismatches based on this particular graphic would be the Titans defense over the Bills offense, the Ravens defense over the Browns offense, and so forth and so on.