Week 12 College Picks

Season Record: 47-17  (all recorded)

Tuesday Night MACtion’:

Ohio -1 @ Central Michigan

There are no such things as locks.  That being said, I would advise playing whatever amount you are comfortable throwing on the bobcats tonight.  This is my STRONGEST play of the season so far.  They dominate Central Michigan in all but one of my weighted key stats- especially on defense, special teams, and turnover margin.  Normally a red light for me, Central has won two straight in this series.  I’m not letting this hold me back because A: they haven’t played since 2014, and B: this is a first year staff at Central Michigan. Whatever subtle mental edge the Chippewas held over the Bobcats is a mere memory. I respect CMU head man John Bonamego (16 years in the NFL) for coming back to his alma mater.  He certainly has the ability to gain some traction down the line, but this team is still in a transitional phase.  Ohio Bobcats head coach Frank Solich is the poor man’s Bill Snyder.  You would be hard pressed to find a coach that gets more out of his program than Frank.  Stats like 16th in the nation in special teams and 10th in the nation in turnover margin do not happen by accident.  Ohio starting QB Greg Windham has benefited greatly from the bye week, and should be good to go after missing some time with an ankle.  Even if redshirt freshman Quinton Maxwell gets the nod in place of the wounded Windham, I am confident in his ability to get the job done and clinch and clinch the MAC East for the Bobcats.   Granted, the line is low.  I hypothesize that Vegas just doesn’t want to put themselves in a bad position in teaser action (line going up to 1.5 or 2 would give CMU tease players a huge middle to backbet Ohio).  The game figures to be low scoring as well, so teaser players using CMU and the under could also exploit a higher line.  I think it will stay right around 1.  Don’t fear: Ohio WILL NOT lose this game.  They are better on paper, more well coached, more well rested, and have more to play for.  Ohio -1, LOCK it up.  Good luck everyone, let’s keep the train rollin’.

Kent State @ Bowling Green

Interesting matchup between two teams badly needing a win.  With no bowls in either team’s future, often times these “winnable” games dictate the future of coaching staffs.  Bowling Green has dominated the series of late, but is clearly way down in 2016.  Kent State is coming off a ‘game’ cover in their first contest without defensive starter Nate Holley vs the best the MAC has to offer in Western Michigan.  I wouldn’t read too much into that game, as Kent State historically plays Western extremely tough and is actually a more efficient defensive team than their MAC leading foes.  Bowling Green will need to generate a few turnovers to put themselves in position for their third win, as turnover margin is the only key area where they have an edge over the golden flashes.  On paper Kent State looks ok tonight, but I would stay away from this one.   Should end right around Vegas’ number.

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